In the ever-fluctuating attention economy—full of new and competing DSPs, rising and dying social media apps, and a proliferation of short-form videos—an interesting phenomenon has been occurring. It seems like every week, a crop of Gen-Z content creators are unearthing ‘80s indie darlings, ‘00s R&B, and shoegazey rock b-sides, causing these catalog finds to explode in interest among young, internet-savvy consumers. It's a kind of music discovery process that would be viewed as typical if it didn’t lead to such calculable mainstream success.
Of course, not every artist’s back catalog is destined for a wider audience, and these trending tracks often disappear back into the past as quickly as they emerged into the present. But there are ways to predict what songs will flourish. Programmatic data combined with the contextual expertise of music journalists—aka music intelligence—can provide plenty of answers when you're seeking to pinpoint the songs striking that nostalgic sweet spot that will grab potential listeners for a project, or to surface an artist whose older music warrants a second go.
Use data as a guidepost
A quantitative analysis is usually a good starting point when looking for a potential sleeper hit, but while it may help guide some initial hunches, it shouldn’t always be taken at face value. Human intuition is the best complement to clear, stratified data.
Using TBC’s proprietary data tool, we've pulled two examples of some notable catalog tracks—i.e., any song that is over five years old—to highlight. These numbers represent what our analysts have determined to be the most important data points when seeking to identify a breaking track, such as the numbers of TikTok videos and Spotify editorial playlists. Since many catalog tracks have gotten a foothold in TikTok videos in the past, we can start by looking there. The reigning track in this category looks to be Justine Skye’s “Collide (feat. Tyga),” which was a minor hit in 2014 but gained a new life on TikTok in late 2022, and was certified gold by the RIAA in March 2023. With almost 10M videos of the track on TikTok compared to the 2M videos of 2015's “Makeba,” it at first appears that this is the song worth paying attention to.
But a few other data points tell a slightly different story. French pop singer Jain’s “Makeba” has a much higher TikTok video count from the past 30 days: 1.8M compared to the 400K of “Collide.” Some notable editorial playlists have also featured "Makeba"—Spotify’s Viral 50 USA and Viral 50 Global—and it has been featured on 59 playlists overall. This is the sign of a viral catalog track that is currently trending, and as such, it’s wise to try to capitalize on it as soon as possible.
Look for converging factors
Identifying a catalog track that is spiking in popularity is step one. Step two is making sure it’ll be viable to use for the audience in question. A wider consumer base will likely include listeners who may not be as internet-cultured as the song’s earliest adopters. Here’s where the journalistic sensibilities in a music intelligence approach come most in handy: Doing some research on “Makeba” can provide a better picture of its current popularity, and if it has the potential to sustain that attention.
The 2015 French song, named after South African civil rights activist Miriam Makeba, had a few previous waves of fame before its most recent TikTok comeback. In 2017, “Makeba” peaked at No. 8 on the French Singles Chart, and its music video was nominated for a Grammy award. Then, in 2018, the song featured in a Clio-award-winning Levi’s commercial, reaching the top of Billboard’s TV Commercials chart in February of that year. The track clearly has a way of striking a chord with audiences (and, interestingly, was actually used in some of TikTok’s earliest months, stretching all the way back to 2017!).
Digging into the current popularity of “Makeba” produces some interesting insights as well. While the song began trending on TikTok around May with a viral dance trend, Jain can thank the song’s explosive growth to a June TikTok post that showed Bill Hader dancing to the song in a cut-for-time SNL sketch. Hader’s popularity exists well outside this TikTok trend, of course: In addition to his eight seasons on SNL, the comedian starred in the four seasons of the critically acclaimed HBO comedy Barry; its last season hit a ratings high and ended in May 2023. His goofy moves also had a life of their own; a now-defunct Twitter account from 2019 would post videos of Hader dancing to various popular songs on the platform.
Examine the changes in context
All of these underlying threads—data, history, and context—manage to converge on one viral catalog hit, and prove that a track might be worth more than just its nostalgic factor. For purposes of marketing, it's worthwhile to examine how the track is currently being received versus earlier in its lifespan. Since it was named after an activist, “Makeba” had an original spirit that was about embracing diversity and communal gatherings—Levi’s 2018 commercial followed that idea, showing people around the world dancing to the song together. But in 2023, the song has spread through TikTok with its original context stripped to be a simple dance trend, or as the soundtrack to a relatable thought.
This is another reminder that viral moments shouldn’t be analyzed in a bubble, but as a reflection of a passage in time; trends ebb and flow, and popularity isn’t always one straight rise to the top. But a confluence of data and key intellectual insights can help map out the moments leading up to the moment, and what's likely to happen next.
TBC covered more data specifics of “Makeba” in an installment of Sound Signal, our biweekly newsletter that highlights music’s hottest emerging artists and tracks. You can read more in our roundup on Chartmetric, and subscribe to Sound Signal so you never miss another viral trend.
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